2020 STRATEGY: Bernie and Warren should form a ticket before the voting starts
Are we thinking sufficiently ahead in our political strategy as the 2020 Democratic primary approaches?
For months, the polling has steadily shown Joe Biden the front runner with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren close behind, and everyone else off in the distance.
Unless one candidate has a decisive surge, the stage will be set, as many are already predicting, for a divided primary and brokered convention where no single candidate winds up with enough delegates for the nomination, triggering a second round of voting where only the delegates (and yes, superdelegates) present get a say.
There could be many different outcomes, with delegates divided relatively evenly among the top three, top two, or with one candidate just shy of the magic number. If the primary doesn’t produce a clear winner, we will have a very messy, controversial convention in Milwaukee, with protesters outside and front runners inside looking for delegates to flip, as the process was designed.
Assuming the polling remains stable, Biden, Sanders and Warren could all come in needing an alliance to win. Many believe it most natural for Bernie and Warren to form a joint ticket, either Warren/Bernie or Bernie/Warren. Together they could have the delegates to end it there. If they were still short but ahead of Biden, it begins negotiations where they have leverage to entice Biden’s (and other) delegates to flip.
This is the system in place, essentially a free for all toss-up where the winner is the most persuasive horse-trader working behind the scenes to whip and flip delegates as the nation breathlessly waits to hear the announcement of a done deal.
But what if Warren and Sanders actually formed a coalition ticket before the voting starts?
The rarely seen “team ticket” idea was tried when Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina joined forces as a last ditch effort in the 2016 Republican primary when Trump was running away with the nomination. But suppose they teamed up before the voting even began. It would have given Cruz an edge in a very crowded field, particularly with women looking to vote their gender. In retrospect, Cruz and Fiorina are surely sorry they didn’t take the gamble before voting started.
Fast forward to 2020 where the Democratic field is marked by distinct divisions — Biden the heir apparent to the Obama/Clinton “centrist” sentiment that narrowly lost in 2016, and Bernie maintaining a huge following with young and new voters, independents and anti-establishment types (including even some Trump crossovers). Then there is Warren’s unique blend of common-sense and policy-minded voters that will also draw from anti-Wall street groups, moderates and progressives who find her more relatable than Bernie but have little faith in Biden.
Sanders and Warren share a lot of the same views on the biggest topics of the day, set starkly against former Vice President Biden whose popularity seems more tied to his name recognition than his policies or gaffe-prone speeches. And his “baggage” is already the basis for corruption allegations by Republicans, whether true or false, in the ugly, confusing impeachment conflict.
Indeed, Biden already hinted, shortly after launching his campaign, the idea of California Senator Kamala Harris as his VP. Harris was rankled on many levels by the suggestion at the time, but the offer is likely to re-emerge in a brokered convention and Biden surely seeks the “diversity” she would bring to his ticket.
Warren and Sanders joining together early would greatly increase the chances of advancing progressive priorities such as the Green New Deal— but who would be at the top of the ticket? How strong is their personal trust and bond?
Would Bernie or Warren be willing to relinquish their powerful U.S. Senate seat to serve as Vice-President, a largely ceremonial position? Would they rather step aside and endorse the other in pursuit of a cabinet post, or perhaps make a run at a Senate Minority/Majority position where the real power is?
We are seeing some great articles on the details of Bernie and Warren’s policy differences, minor and major, which is refreshing as witness a civil contest based on issues and policy details.
Could they each absorb the other’s negatives with their respective supporter bases getting onboard in extremely high numbers? I think the stakes are too high not to.
As a Bernie supporter who has always been open to Warren, I see Biden’s lead in polls as people voting out of reflex or fear. Even worse are the high numbers of low-info voters who don’t know the candidates’ platforms — but a joint campaign could combine to inform voters with double the resources, plus the announcement would dominate the news, cutting through the noise.
I like Bernie’s platform and bottom-up outsider approach best, but Warren’s wealth tax bolsters the push for sweeping change this cycle, and her crime bill repeal is strong, as is her trustbusting and much else. As a teacher, I am excited about their shared embrace of the NAACP ban on new charter schools and their strong commitment to equity in public schools.
Most importantly, I fear a Biden nomination will be too similar to Hillary’s where the enthusiasm needed for the general election won’t be there. A bold move like this would shake things up, showing foresight, courage, out of the box thinking, and for the candidate who might step aside to endorse a running mate, historic selflessness for a direly urgent cause.
I know there are purists, die-hards and dead-enders out there who believe Warren is not progressive enough, or Bernie is too old and crotchety, or some other excuse. But this is not about the fringes, this is a clear path to winning within the current system which comes with sacrifice. Thoughts and comments welcome — should we consider this, or follow politics as usual and roll the dice on the outcome?
RELATED: David Goodner at Common Dreams proposed the merged ticket (with Bernie at the top) a few weeks after Warren announced her run.
UPDATE: Naomi Klein’s incisive Intercept piece on a Bernie/Warren coalition does not mention a pre-primary joint ticket, but points out the crucial importance of them sticking together against Biden:
UPDATE II: Cynical Daily Beast reporter Eleanor Clift quotes unnamed “experts” who see a scenario where “crazy socialist” Bernie falls behind Warren and endorses her by convention time
UPDATE III: Without much specifics, an NBC News editorial by Miles Howard recommends a Bernie-Warren merger to galvanize the rapidly growing millennial contingent.
UPDATE IV: From a Dec. 26 Politico article on Bernie’s consistency: “Larry Cohen, chairman of the pro-Sanders group Our Revolution, said Warren’s candidacy is not a problem for Sanders if both of them can — together — amass a plurality of delegates heading into the convention. “The math is that if you think of the voters for Warren and the voters for Sanders as two circles, yes, there is overlap, [but] most of the circles are separate,” Cohen said. “I think between them, we can get to a majority.”